Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
